For entertainment only. MMA analysis only, not financial advice.

What members read before the fight

Result: Yousri Belgaroui beat Djorden Santos by KO/TKO in round 1. The pick, Yousri Belgaroui, was correct. The full breakdown below is unchanged from its publication on September 8, 2026. Every fight opens like this once it is graded.

Read this week's card before it starts

Full fight blueprint

Yousri Belgaroui vs Djorden Santos

Forecast winner

Yousri Belgaroui · 63.0%

Fair price -170 · the odds at which this probability breaks even, before the book's margin.

The forecast gives Belgaroui the stronger and more frequently accessible open-space phase because his documented kicking, straight offense and knees align with a substantial listed reach advantage, while Santos has documented moments of falling short or being driven backward. Santos has the better-supported fence-pressure phase, creating a meaningful route to close rounds, but the evidence does not establish that he can consistently advance from the fence to takedown control or a finish. Open-space exchanges are therefore assessed as having greater likely precedence than the narrower fence edge, producing a moderate Belgaroui lean. Method history reinforces KO/TKO as Belgaroui's leading conditional win method and shows Santos has credible wins by decision, KO/TKO and submission, but those histories are not treated as proof of matchup-specific mechanisms. The round hazards are conditional route estimates informed by documented finish rounds and are especially uncertain where direct history is sparse.

Method, if Yousri Belgaroui wins
KO/TKO · 69.0%
Round, if that finish occurs
Round 2 · 35.0%

This exact winner, method and round combination has a 15.2% probability.

Most likely individual outcome: Yousri Belgaroui by Decision · 18.9%.

Against the result: winner correct, method correct, round missed.

Every way this fight ends

Probabilities for each fighter and method, from the same forecast as the pick above. They add up to 100%. Under each one is its fair price: the odds at which it breaks even, before the book's margin.

Yousri Belgaroui63.0%

KO/TKO
43.5%
+130
Submission
0.6%
+15773
Decision
18.9%
+429

Djorden Santos37.0%

KO/TKO
8.9%
+1026
Submission
9.3%
+981
Decision
18.9%
+430
Goes the distance
37.8% · finish 62.2%
Finish by round
R1 19.2% · R2 23.4% · R3 19.7%

Fighter A · Advocate brief

Yousri Belgaroui’s case

Yousri Belgaroui's strongest route is a three-round striking fight at range: use his documented calf kicks, straight punches and knees to punish Djorden Santos's forward pressure, maintain distance with his physical reach advantage, and seek a standing KO/TKO if Santos repeatedly enters without clean defensive exits. This is a conditional projection rather than a claim that the exact matchup mechanism has been observed.

Sources [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8]

How the path opens

Belgaroui has documented success creating offense against pressure and clinch entries: against Mansur Abdul-Malik he used calf kicks, stuffed a labored takedown and finished with a knee, while against Azamat Bekoev he used a sticking-and-moving outside approach and landed damaging knees. Santos has been documented pressuring opponents and working from the fence, but also being driven back by clean combinations and having counters miss or fall short.

Opponent’s response

Belgaroui's denial case is to keep Santos from converting forward pressure into sustained clinch or takedown control. Belgaroui has documented takedown defense against Abdul-Malik's body-lock attempts and a knee that disrupted a shot; his recorded UFC striking-defense figure is higher than Santos's. Santos has landed takedowns in documented UFC history and has held opponents against the fence, so denial is supported as a necessary objective but not as a guaranteed outcome.

Where the case fails

The Belgaroui case is weakened if Santos consistently closes the longer range, forces repeated cage exchanges, and turns those exchanges into prolonged control or takedowns before Belgaroui can reset. Santos's documented pressure and fence control establish that this is a live threat; Belgaroui's prior fight observation also records periods of being controlled against the cage, so his path depends on preventing that pressure from becoming sustained.

Evidence against the case

Santos has a broader documented career finishing profile, including submission wins, and his UFC-recorded takedown-defense figure is strong. He has also demonstrated pressure, fence work and the ability to survive substantial striking exchanges. In addition, Santos's most recent documented UFC bout ended in a submission loss, but that result does not by itself establish that Belgaroui can reproduce the same mechanism. Belgaroui's own history includes documented cage-control vulnerability and a decision loss, so the striking-range thesis is not without risk.

Sources [9][10][11][12][3][13][14][15][16]

Fighter B · Advocate brief

Djorden Santos’s case

Djorden Santos’s strongest path is to pressure Yousri Belgaroui into sustained boxing and clinch exchanges, then convert positional control into a decision or opportunistic finish. Santos has documented success pressuring opponents to the fence and breaking clinches to continue punching, while Belgaroui’s documented fights show that pressure and clinch engagements can limit his outside striking and create takedown or control sequences.

Sources [3][17][13][18][9][19]

How the path opens

Santos’s access is conditional rather than directly observed against Belgaroui: he should make the shorter-range fight difficult by advancing behind punches, forcing clinches, and working from the fence. This is supported by Santos’s documented pressure and clinch work against Will Currie and Osman Diaz, while Belgaroui has been documented both pressing and being pressed against the cage. Santos’s 75.6-inch reach is shorter than Belgaroui’s 79.1 inches, making clean long-range exchanges a less favorable primary route for Santos.

Opponent’s response

Santos can plausibly deny Belgaroui’s preferred long-range, kick-and-knee rhythm by crowding the pocket and making repeated clinch entries, but the evidence does not establish that Santos will consistently stop Belgaroui’s kicking or takedown defense. Belgaroui has documented a knockout win after defending a body-lock attempt and has recorded UFC significant-strike defense and takedown-defense figures; those statistics are limited to the recorded UFC sample and do not fully establish the matchup.

Where the case fails

Santos’s path is most vulnerable if Belgaroui keeps the contest at long kicking range, repeatedly punishes entries with knees and straight attacks, and prevents sustained cage control. Belgaroui has documented wins by KO/TKO, including a recent stoppage of Mansur Abdul-Malik, and his physical profile lists a substantial reach advantage over Santos. Santos’s recent recorded UFC bout ended in a submission loss, so failure to establish effective pressure or to protect prolonged grappling exchanges would also threaten this case.

Evidence against the case

The strongest contrary evidence favors Belgaroui’s long-range striking and finishing route: he has documented eight KO/TKO wins, a recent knockout of Mansur Abdul-Malik, and observations of effective knees, calf kicks, and sustained outside striking. His longer reach and recorded UFC striking-defense and takedown-defense figures further support the possibility that Santos cannot reliably force the close-range fight. Santos also most recently lost by submission, which is relevant contrary evidence against assuming grappling control will automatically favor him.

Sources [20][21][1][2][5][6][22][23][24]

Adjudicator assessment

Which tactics take precedence?

Open space

Edge: Yousri Belgaroui

Yousri Belgaroui has documented outside offense using kicks, jabs and knees, including knees that disrupted entries and produced a stoppage. Djorden Santos has documented pressure, but also counters falling short and retreats after clean straight combinations. Belgaroui's listed 79.1-inch reach versus Santos's 75.6 inches supports, but does not guarantee, more frequent access to long range.

Santos can deny this edge by consistently crowding Belgaroui, but the documented samples show mixed success closing distance. Belgaroui has also defended selected entries, while Santos has been intercepted or driven backward in selected exchanges.

Sources [2][18][4][25][5][6]

Against the fence

Edge: Djorden Santos

Santos has documented access through forward pressure, punches along the fence and continued offense after breaking a clinch. Belgaroui has documented periods of being pressed and controlled against the cage, although he has also reversed positions and escaped.

Belgaroui's knees and selected entry defense can interrupt Santos before prolonged fence work develops. The evidence supports a modest Santos fence edge, not reliable takedown conversion or sustained control in this matchup.

Sources [3][13][26][1]

On the ground

Edge: Not established

The frozen evidence documents isolated takedowns, defenses and historical submission results, but it does not establish matchup-specific ground entry, stabilization, scrambling or submission access for either fighter.

Neither fighter's ground denial is sufficiently documented against a comparable matchup mechanism. UFC statistical samples and career results cannot by themselves establish control or submission defense.

Arguments that did not hold up

Yousri Belgaroui: Path to victory

Belgaroui's range-striking route is supported, but extending it to a matchup-specific standing KO/TKO assumes a Santos defensive failure that was not documented. Santos's record lists no KO/TKO losses, and one observation records him absorbing a clean right hand without an immediate adverse reaction; these do not eliminate a knockout, but they prevent treating that finish mechanism as established.

Sources [9][27][28]

Djorden Santos: Path to victory

Santos's pressure-to-fence access and decision route are plausible, but the proposed conversion from positional control to an opportunistic finish is not phase-complete. The evidence file does not establish sustained ground control, matchup-specific submission entry or Belgaroui's failure once grounded; selected evidence instead shows Belgaroui disrupting or defending entries.

Sources [1][18][23]

Uncertainty and probability treatment

No direct observation exists for Belgaroui versus Santos; phase access and precedence are matchup inferences from selected prior bouts.

The film evidence is secondary, sparse and clustered around a small number of fights; copied or derived projections were not treated as independent corroboration.

UFC statistical summaries cover recorded UFC bouts only, with unreported sample sizes, and do not represent either fighter's complete career.

The ground phase remains unknown because history does not prove entry, stabilization, scrambling, submission access or defense in this matchup.

Santos's Osman/Ozzy Diaz result has an unresolved identity conflict; both conflicted records are retained only as counterevidence and not counted independently.

Belgaroui has no documented submission win, so his 1% conditional submission probability is an uncertainty allowance rather than a supported tactical route; corresponding round hazards are highly speculative conditional estimates required for that route and do not alter p_A_raw or method values apart…

The bout is scheduled for three rounds, but no verified weigh-in or bout-day condition is available.

Film evidence is secondary and sparse; it documents selected fights rather than a complete tactical sample.

UFCStats performance figures are scoped to recorded UFC bouts and do not represent either fighter's complete career.

The trajectory record contains unresolved duplicate/identity conflicts for Santos's documented Osman/Ozzy Diaz loss; those records are retained as counterevidence and not used as independent corroboration.

No direct evidence establishes the fighters' actual matchup-specific entry, control, submission, cardio or defensive mechanisms.

The evidence file contains no direct observation of Santos versus Belgaroui, so the proposed pressure-to-clinch route is conditional rather than an observed matchup mechanism.

The film evidence is secondary and clustered around documented bouts; repeated style projections are not independent corroboration.

UFC statistical summaries cover only recorded UFC bouts and do not measure the fighters’ complete careers.

Santos’s individual history contains unresolved conflicting opponent identities for one recorded bout; those conflicted records are retained as counterevidence but not used as positive support.

Weigh-ins were not completed or verified in the evidence file, and no evidence establishes fight-night condition, cardio, or tactical preparation.

These are raw AI probabilities. Historical wins establish a baseline: a documented winning method retains at least 1% probability conditional on that fighter winning. Recent tactical trends can reduce that probability, but cannot erase it.

Ask about this fight

Answers come only from the analysis on this page and cite its numbered sources. They explain the forecast; they do not change it.

Loading…

Sources (28)
  1. [1] Sherdog · Yousri Belgaroui
  2. [2] Sherdog · Yousri Belgaroui
  3. [3] Sherdog · Djorden Santos
  4. [4] Sherdog · Djorden Santos
  5. [5] UFCStats · Yousri Belgaroui
  6. [6] UFCStats · Djorden Santos
  7. [7] UFCStats · Yousri Belgaroui
  8. [8] UFCStats · Djorden Santos
  9. [9] Sherdog · Djorden Santos
  10. [10] Sherdog · Djorden Santos
  11. [11] Sherdog · Djorden Santos
  12. [12] UFCStats · Djorden Santos
  13. [13] MMA Junkie · Yousri Belgaroui
  14. [14] Sherdog · Yousri Belgaroui
  15. [15] Sherdog · Djorden Santos
  16. [16] Sherdog · Djorden Santos
  17. [17] Sherdog · Djorden Santos
  18. [18] Sherdog · Yousri Belgaroui
  19. [19] Sherdog · Djorden Santos
  20. [20] Sherdog · Yousri Belgaroui
  21. [21] Sherdog · Yousri Belgaroui
  22. [22] UFCStats · Yousri Belgaroui
  23. [23] UFCStats · Yousri Belgaroui
  24. [24] Sherdog · Djorden Santos
  25. [25] Sherdog · Djorden Santos
  26. [26] MMA Junkie · Yousri Belgaroui
  27. [27] Sherdog · Djorden Santos
  28. [28] UFCStats · Djorden Santos

Free · Tale of the tape

Tale of the tape

Yousri BelgarouiStatDjorden Santos
11-3-0Record11-4-0
6′6″ · 198 cmHeight6′0″ · 183 cm
79″ · 201 cmReach75″ · 191 cm
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox

Evidence checked through Sep 8, before weigh-ins. Misses, scratches, or replacements announced later are not reflected in this pick.

Result: Yousri Belgaroui beat Djorden Santos by KO/TKO in round 1. The pre-fight pick, Yousri Belgaroui, was correct. This is the original pre-fight pick retained after the event. Its settled result appears in the public Track Record.

Authorship, limitations, and corrections

Generated automatically by The Oracle. No individual human reviews each prediction before publication.

Blueprint MMA publishes the report and the Oracle Engine generates it. Sources can be incomplete, outdated, or wrong, and late injuries, cancellations, weigh-in changes, or market movement can change the fight after the displayed cutoff.

Blueprint MMA never equates hit rate with profitability and makes no profit guarantee. Review the methodology, correction policy, settled proof, and current UFC prediction board.