// Roster Index›Welterweight›Dossier · Geoff Neal
UFC FIGHTER PROFILE_
UFC · UNKNOWNSTOCK 0WELTERWEIGHT

Geoff
Neal

NICKNAME"Handz of Steel"·UNITED STATES
PROFESSIONAL RECORD
16-8-0
CURRENT FORM
2L STREAK
CURRENT GYM
Fortis MMA
NEXT FIGHT
NO BOUT ANNOUNCED
Geoff Neal
FIGHTER -
UNI🇺🇸
PROFILE PHOTO
PROFILE
PROFILE DATA! STALE
HEIGHT
5'11"
REACH
6'3"
AGE
36
STANCE
SOUTHPAW
WEIGHT
Welterweight
PROFESSIONAL RECORD_
24 BOUTS
WIN
16
LOSS
8
DRAW
0
WIN RATE
67%
16/24 bouts
FINISH RATE
75%
of professional wins
LAST 5 FIGHTS2L STREAK · 1-4
LLWLL
Form trend 0 over the last 90 days.
STYLE SUMMARY_
DATA: STALE
FIGHTING STYLE
POWER PUNCHER

Power puncher fighter with elite knockout power — 63% of wins are by ko/tko.

KEY STRENGTHS

Closes distance and trades — most wins come from heavy hands inside the first two rounds.

KEY RISKS

Pressure boxers willing to wade into the pocket have found chins on offer; cardio drops in late rounds.

// PERFORMANCE_METRICS · 02_

STRIKE / GRAPPLE
VITALS

Observed profile rates compared with stored weight-class medians where coverage exists. Any fallback uses a labeled UFC reference average; no fallback is presented as a division median.

// SLPM▲ ABOVE
5.02
Strikes Landed/Min
Reference value 2.65
// STR. ACC▲ ABOVE
51%
Striking Accuracy
Reference value 47%
// SAPM▼ BELOW
5.50
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Reference value 2.74
// STR. DEF▲ ABOVE
57%
Striking Defense
Reference value 53%
// TD AVG▼ BELOW
0.54
Takedowns/15 min
Reference value 1.50
// TD ACC▲ ABOVE
45%
Takedown Accuracy
Reference value 40%
// TD DEF▲ ABOVE
88%
Takedown Defense
Reference value 59%
// SUB AVG▼ BELOW
0.11
Submissions/15 min
Reference value 0.50
// QUALITY_OF_COMPETITION · 02B_

WHO THEY
ACTUALLY FOUGHT

A record says how often a fighter won, not against whom. These ratings weigh every result by the opponent's strength at the time, then compare this fighter with the 98 other rated fighters on the UFC welterweight roster (anyone with a UFC bout in the last two years or one booked).

// RATING
#47
of 99 on the UFC welterweight roster · Elo 1566
// STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
86th
percentile · average opponent rated 1619 at fight time (recent fights count most)
// RESULTS VS EXPECTATION
19th
percentile · fell short of what opponents' ratings predicted (-0.13 per fight)

19 rated fights · opponents rated in 79% of recorded fights · last rated fight FEB 21, 2026

// CAREER_BREAKDOWN · 03_

WIN CONDITION MAP

Where the wins come from, and where the losses came from. Method splits by knockout, submission, and decision.

// WINS (16)
n = 16
KO/TKO · 10
SUB · 2
DEC · 4
10
KO/TKO
63%
2
SUB
13%
4
DEC
25%
// LOSSES (8)
n = 8
KO/TKO · 3
SUB · 2
DEC · 3
3
KO/TKO
38%
2
SUB
25%
3
DEC
38%
// PATH_TO_VICTORY_
75% FINISH
KO/TKOEARLY ROUNDS · 10 fights
63%
SUBANY ROUND · 2 fights
13%
DECFULL FIGHT · 4 fights
25%
Top win condition: ko/tko · early rounds.
// DNA_PROFILE · 04_

ATTRIBUTE FINGERPRINT

Evidence-backed 0-100 scores built only from observed profile stats and disclosed bout-history proxies. This is a fixed Blueprint scoring model, not a division percentile; missing axes remain unknown.

// DNA_PROFILE_
3 OBSERVED7 DERIVED0 UNKNOWN
// BENCHMARK
FIXED SCORE SCALE
// LINKED SAMPLE
24 BOUTS
// PROFILE UPDATED
OCT 25, 2026
// RECORDED SOURCE
ufcstats
Fighter attribute fingerprint10 of 10 attributes have evidence-backed scores on the Blueprint fixed scale. Unknown axes are not plotted and no score represents a division percentile.KO POWER89TD DEFENSE100GRAPPLING40CHIN73STRIKING70CARDIO66AGGRESSION47SUB THREAT20STR DEFENSE60RECOVERY57
// BANDS
90+ELITE
70-89STRONG
45-69AVERAGE
30-44BELOW
<30LOW
N/AUNKNOWN
Highest scored axis: TD Defense. Lowest scored axis: Sub Threat.
// EVIDENCE REGISTER
10 SCORED · 0 OPEN
KO Power89
DERIVED PROXY

KO wins divided by total career wins

N=16 wins
TD Defense100
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed takedown defense rate (88%)

Grappling40
DERIVED PROXY

Composite of observed takedown volume, accuracy, and submission rate

Chin73
DERIVED PROXY

KO-loss durability proxy from career record

N=24 bouts
Striking70
DERIVED PROXY

Composite of observed striking volume and accuracy

Cardio66
DERIVED PROXY

Long-fight exposure proxy from bout duration and decision-win share

Aggression47
DERIVED PROXY

Activity proxy from observed strike and takedown volume

Sub Threat20
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed submission rate (0.11 per 15 min)

Str Defense60
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed striking defense rate (57%)

Recovery57
DERIVED PROXY

Share of recorded losses followed by a win in the next recorded bout.

N=8 losses
Fighter attribute fingerprint accessible data summary
AttributeScoreProvenanceEvidenceSample
KO Power89 out of 100DERIVED PROXYKO wins divided by total career wins16 wins
TD Defense100 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved takedown defense rate (88%)Not recorded
Grappling40 out of 100DERIVED PROXYComposite of observed takedown volume, accuracy, and submission rateNot recorded
Chin73 out of 100DERIVED PROXYKO-loss durability proxy from career record24 bouts
Striking70 out of 100DERIVED PROXYComposite of observed striking volume and accuracyNot recorded
Cardio66 out of 100DERIVED PROXYLong-fight exposure proxy from bout duration and decision-win shareNot recorded
Aggression47 out of 100DERIVED PROXYActivity proxy from observed strike and takedown volumeNot recorded
Sub Threat20 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved submission rate (0.11 per 15 min)Not recorded
Str Defense60 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved striking defense rate (57%)Not recorded
Recovery57 out of 100DERIVED PROXYShare of recorded losses followed by a win in the next recorded bout.8 losses
// CAREER_MOMENTUM · 05_

THE ARC SO FAR

Rolling momentum score (0-100) recomputed after every bout. Weighted blend of result, opponent context, and method-of-finish, designed to show the shape, not the destination.

// MOMENTUM_TIMELINE_
SCOREWINLOSS
0255075100AUG 2012WAUG 2012WJAN 2013LAPR 2013WAUG 2013WJUN 2014WNOV 2014WOCT 2015LJAN 2017WJUL 2017WJUL 2017WFEB 2018WSEP 2018WJAN 2019WJUL 2019WDEC 2019LDEC 2020LMAY 2021WDEC 2021WAUG 2022LMAR 2023LFEB 2024WOCT 2024LAUG 2025LFEB 2026// SCORE

  1. Start, AUG 2012, momentum score 45.
  2. Start, AUG 2012, momentum score 55, SUB R1.
  3. Start, JAN 2013, momentum score 64, KO/TKO R2.
  4. Start, APR 2013, momentum score 57, SUB R3.
  5. Start, AUG 2013, momentum score 64, DEC R3.
  6. Start, JUN 2014, momentum score 71, DEC R3.
  7. Start, NOV 2014, momentum score 80, KO/TKO R2.
  8. Start, OCT 2015, momentum score 91, KO/TKO R1.
  9. Start, JAN 2017, momentum score 84, KO/TKO R3.
  10. Start, JUL 2017, momentum score 94, KO/TKO R1.
  11. Start, JUL 2017, momentum score 100, KO/TKO R1.
  12. Start, FEB 2018, momentum score 100, SUB R1.
  13. Start, SEP 2018, momentum score 100, KO/TKO R2.
  14. Start, JAN 2019, momentum score 100, DEC R3.
  15. Start, JUL 2019, momentum score 100, KO/TKO R2.
  16. Start, DEC 2019, momentum score 100, KO/TKO R1.
  17. Start, DEC 2020, momentum score 93, DEC R5.
  18. Start, MAY 2021, momentum score 86, DEC R3.
  19. Start, DEC 2021, momentum score 93, DEC R3.
  20. Start, AUG 2022, momentum score 100, KO/TKO R3.
  21. Start, MAR 2023, momentum score 93, SUB R3.
  22. Start, FEB 2024, momentum score 86, DEC R3.
  23. Start, OCT 2024, momentum score 97, KO/TKO R1.
  24. Start, AUG 2025, momentum score 87, KO/TKO R1.
  25. Start, FEB 2026, momentum score 77, KO/TKO R1.

Peaked at 100 (W vs Waldon), bottomed at 45 (Debut). Current reading: 77.

// KILL_SHOT_MATRIX · 06_

WHEN THE FINISHES COME

Cross-tab of fight outcome by method and round. Reads top-down for method, left-right for round. Cyan intensity scales with frequency.

// METHOD × ROUND_
24/24 fights mapped
METHOD ↓ / ROUND →R1R2R3R4R5FREQ
KO/TKO
7
29%
4
17%
2
8%
-
-
13
total
SUB
2
8%
-
2
8%
-
-
4
total
DEC
-
-
6
25%
-
1
4%
7
total
// PRIMARY KILL ZONE
R1-R2 KO/TKO · 11 of 24 mapped
// LATE-FIGHT GAP
No R5 finishes either way
// DECISION RATE
29%, fights rarely go the distance
GYM & TRAINING PARTNERS_

WHERE THE TRAINING HAPPENS

Camp affiliation matters for stylistic predictions. Who you spend 200 rounds a week with shapes how you fight on Saturday.

// CURRENT_GYM_
Fortis MMA
VIEW FIGHTER DIRECTORY →
// STYLE_INFLUENCE_
STRIKING-FIRSTCAGE DEFENSE

Style tags inferred from per-fight rate stats: striking-first, wrestling-heavy, sub grappling, cage defense.

// RESOLVED_TRAINING_PARTNERS

No linked training partners are available for this gym yet.

// FIGHT_HISTORY · 08_

BOUT LOG
24 FIGHTS

Detailed bout records for the indexed tenure. Sorted most recent first.

L
VS Uros MedicFeb 21, 2026
KO/TKOR1 · 1:19
UFC Fight Night 267 - Strickland vs. Hernandez
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
KO (Punches)
L
VS Carlos PratesAug 16, 2025
KO/TKOR1 · 4:59
UFC 319 - Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
KO (Spinning Back Elbow)
W
VS Rafael dos AnjosOct 26, 2024
KO/TKOR1 · 1:30
UFC 308 - Topuria vs. Holloway
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Knee Injury)
L
VS Ian GarryFeb 17, 2024
DecisionR3 · 5:00
UFC 298 - Volkanovski vs. Topuria
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Split)
L
VS Shavkat RakhmonovMar 4, 2023
SubmissionR3 · 4:17
UFC 285 - Jones vs. Gane
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
W
VS Vicente LuqueAug 6, 2022
KO/TKOR3 · 2:01
UFC on ESPN 40 - Santos vs. Hill
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
KO (Punches)
W
VS Santiago PonzinibbioDec 11, 2021
DecisionR3 · 5:00
UFC 269 - Oliveira vs. Poirier
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Split)
L
VS Neil MagnyMay 8, 2021
DecisionR3 · 5:00
UFC on ESPN 24 - Rodriguez vs. Waterson
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
L
VS Stephen ThompsonDec 19, 2020
DecisionR5 · 5:00
UFC Fight Night 183 - Thompson vs. Neal
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
W
VS Mike PerryDec 14, 2019
KO/TKOR1 · 1:30
UFC 245 - Usman vs. Covington
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Head Kick and Punches)
W
VS Niko PriceJul 27, 2019
KO/TKOR2 · 2:39
UFC 240 - Holloway vs. Edgar
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Punches)
W
VS Belal MuhammadJan 19, 2019
DecisionR3 · 5:00
UFC Fight Night 143 - Cejudo vs. Dillashaw
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
// FAQ · 09_

CITATION-READY ANSWERS

Quick answers based on the public fighter profile and fight history shown on this page.

Welterweight. Professional record 16-8. Unranked at the time of indexing.

Research Geoff Neal

Compare this fighter head to head, check the next UFC card, read current matchup analysis, or verify settled Blueprint MMA forecasts.

Compare Geoff NealUpcoming UFC scheduleFight analysis archivePrediction track record

Recent Analysis

// FORECAST_AVAILABLE_
Want the next-fight forecast?
The pick is free.

Every published fight shows its winner and win probability free. The full debate, method and round open with Sharp or an Event Pass.

THIS WEEK'S PICKS ALL FIGHTERS
BLUEPRINT/MMA · DOSSIER ENGINE v3.2
// LAST INDEX SYNC · 2026-10-28