// Roster Index›Flyweight›Dossier · Matheus Nicolau
UFC FIGHTER PROFILE_
UFC · UNKNOWNSTOCK 0FLYWEIGHT

Matheus
Nicolau

NICKNAME"N/A"·BRAZIL
PROFESSIONAL RECORD
19-5-1
CURRENT FORM
3L STREAK
NEXT FIGHT
NO BOUT ANNOUNCED
Matheus Nicolau
FIGHTER -
BRA🇧🇷
PROFILE PHOTO
PROFILE
PROFILE DATA! COLD
HEIGHT
5'6"
REACH
5'6"
AGE
33
STANCE
ORTHODOX
WEIGHT
Flyweight
PROFESSIONAL RECORD_
25 BOUTS
WIN
19
LOSS
5
DRAW
1
WIN RATE
76%
19/25 bouts
FINISH RATE
53%
of professional wins
LAST 5 FIGHTS3L STREAK · 2-3
WWLLL
Form trend 0 over the last 90 days.
STYLE SUMMARY_
DATA: COLD
FIGHTING STYLE
WELL ROUNDED

Well rounded fighter built around defensive grappling — 47% of wins are by dec.

KEY STRENGTHS

Banks rounds on the scorecard — pace and positioning over splash damage.

KEY RISKS

Pressure boxers willing to wade into the pocket have found chins on offer; cardio drops in late rounds.

// PERFORMANCE_METRICS · 02_

STRIKE / GRAPPLE
VITALS

Observed profile rates compared with stored weight-class medians where coverage exists. Any fallback uses a labeled UFC reference average; no fallback is presented as a division median.

// SLPM▲ ABOVE
3.31
Strikes Landed/Min
Reference value 2.70
// STR. ACC▲ ABOVE
51%
Striking Accuracy
Reference value 46%
// SAPM▼ BELOW
2.98
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Reference value 2.73
// STR. DEF▲ ABOVE
65%
Striking Defense
Reference value 53%
// TD AVG▼ BELOW
1.22
Takedowns/15 min
Reference value 1.50
// TD ACC▲ ABOVE
43%
Takedown Accuracy
Reference value 40%
// TD DEF▲ ABOVE
90%
Takedown Defense
Reference value 59%
// SUB AVG▲ ABOVE
0.80
Submissions/15 min
Reference value 0.50
// QUALITY_OF_COMPETITION · 02B_

WHO THEY
ACTUALLY FOUGHT

A record says how often a fighter won, not against whom. These ratings weigh every result by the opponent's strength at the time, then compare this fighter with the 60 rated fighters on the UFC flyweight roster (anyone with a UFC bout in the last two years or one booked).

// RATING
#28
against the 60 rated on the UFC flyweight roster · Elo 1550
// STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
77th
percentile · average opponent rated 1565 at fight time (recent fights count most)
// RESULTS VS EXPECTATION
32nd
percentile · fell short of what opponents' ratings predicted (-0.08 per fight)

13 rated fights · opponents rated in 52% of recorded fights · last rated fight OCT 19, 2024

// CAREER_BREAKDOWN · 03_

WIN CONDITION MAP

Where the wins come from, and where the losses came from. Method splits by knockout, submission, and decision.

// WINS (19)
n = 19
KO/TKO · 5
SUB · 5
DEC · 9
5
KO/TKO
26%
5
SUB
26%
9
DEC
47%
// LOSSES (5)
n = 5
KO/TKO · 4
DEC · 1
4
KO/TKO
80%
0
SUB
0%
1
DEC
20%
// PATH_TO_VICTORY_
53% FINISH
KO/TKOEARLY ROUNDS · 5 fights
26%
SUBANY ROUND · 5 fights
26%
DECFULL FIGHT · 9 fights
47%
Top win condition: ko/tko · early rounds.
// DNA_PROFILE · 04_

ATTRIBUTE FINGERPRINT

Evidence-backed 0-100 scores built only from observed profile stats and disclosed bout-history proxies. This is a fixed Blueprint scoring model, not a division percentile; missing axes remain unknown.

// DNA_PROFILE_
3 OBSERVED7 DERIVED0 UNKNOWN
// BENCHMARK
FIXED SCORE SCALE
// LINKED SAMPLE
25 BOUTS
// PROFILE UPDATED
OCT 25, 2026
// RECORDED SOURCE
ufcstats
Fighter attribute fingerprint10 of 10 attributes have evidence-backed scores on the Blueprint fixed scale. Unknown axes are not plotted and no score represents a division percentile.KO POWER38TD DEFENSE100GRAPPLING60CHIN69STRIKING53CARDIO73AGGRESSION25SUB THREAT40STR DEFENSE78RECOVERY50
// BANDS
90+ELITE
70-89STRONG
45-69AVERAGE
30-44BELOW
<30LOW
N/AUNKNOWN
Highest scored axis: TD Defense. Lowest scored axis: Aggression.
// EVIDENCE REGISTER
10 SCORED · 0 OPEN
KO Power38
DERIVED PROXY

KO wins divided by total career wins

N=19 wins
TD Defense100
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed takedown defense rate (90%)

Grappling60
DERIVED PROXY

Composite of observed takedown volume, accuracy, and submission rate

Chin69
DERIVED PROXY

KO-loss durability proxy from career record

N=25 bouts
Striking53
DERIVED PROXY

Composite of observed striking volume and accuracy

Cardio73
DERIVED PROXY

Long-fight exposure proxy from bout duration and decision-win share

Aggression25
DERIVED PROXY

Activity proxy from observed strike and takedown volume

Sub Threat40
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed submission rate (0.8 per 15 min)

Str Defense78
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed striking defense rate (65%)

Recovery50
DERIVED PROXY

Share of recorded losses followed by a win in the next recorded bout.

N=5 losses
Fighter attribute fingerprint accessible data summary
AttributeScoreProvenanceEvidenceSample
KO Power38 out of 100DERIVED PROXYKO wins divided by total career wins19 wins
TD Defense100 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved takedown defense rate (90%)Not recorded
Grappling60 out of 100DERIVED PROXYComposite of observed takedown volume, accuracy, and submission rateNot recorded
Chin69 out of 100DERIVED PROXYKO-loss durability proxy from career record25 bouts
Striking53 out of 100DERIVED PROXYComposite of observed striking volume and accuracyNot recorded
Cardio73 out of 100DERIVED PROXYLong-fight exposure proxy from bout duration and decision-win shareNot recorded
Aggression25 out of 100DERIVED PROXYActivity proxy from observed strike and takedown volumeNot recorded
Sub Threat40 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved submission rate (0.8 per 15 min)Not recorded
Str Defense78 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved striking defense rate (65%)Not recorded
Recovery50 out of 100DERIVED PROXYShare of recorded losses followed by a win in the next recorded bout.5 losses
// CAREER_MOMENTUM · 05_

THE ARC SO FAR

Rolling momentum score (0-100) recomputed after every bout. Weighted blend of result, opponent context, and method-of-finish, designed to show the shape, not the destination.

// MOMENTUM_TIMELINE_
SCOREWINLOSS
0255075100AUG 2010WAUG 2010WAPR 2011SEP 2011WOCT 2011WMAR 2012WJUN 2012WSEP 2012WDEC 2012LDEC 2012WDEC 2013WJUN 2014WAUG 2014WNOV 2015WJUL 2016WDEC 2017LJUL 2018WMAY 2019WAUG 2019WMAR 2021WOCT 2021WMAR 2022WDEC 2022LAPR 2023LAPR 2024LOCT 2024// SCORE

  1. Start, AUG 2010, momentum score 45.
  2. Start, AUG 2010, momentum score 55, SUB R1.
  3. Start, APR 2011, momentum score 64, KO/TKO R2.
  4. Start, SEP 2011, momentum score 64.
  5. Start, OCT 2011, momentum score 74, SUB R2.
  6. Start, MAR 2012, momentum score 84, SUB R1.
  7. Start, JUN 2012, momentum score 91, DEC R3.
  8. Start, SEP 2012, momentum score 100, KO/TKO R3.
  9. Start, DEC 2012, momentum score 100, DEC R2.
  10. Start, DEC 2012, momentum score 90, KO/TKO R1.
  11. Start, DEC 2013, momentum score 97, DEC R3.
  12. Start, JUN 2014, momentum score 100, KO/TKO R1.
  13. Start, AUG 2014, momentum score 100, KO/TKO R2.
  14. Start, NOV 2015, momentum score 100, SUB R3.
  15. Start, JUL 2016, momentum score 100, DEC R3.
  16. Start, DEC 2017, momentum score 100, DEC R3.
  17. Start, JUL 2018, momentum score 90, KO/TKO R1.
  18. Start, MAY 2019, momentum score 100, SUB R1.
  19. Start, AUG 2019, momentum score 100, DEC R3.
  20. Start, MAR 2021, momentum score 100, DEC R3.
  21. Start, OCT 2021, momentum score 100, DEC R3.
  22. Start, MAR 2022, momentum score 100, DEC R3.
  23. Start, DEC 2022, momentum score 100, KO/TKO R2.
  24. Start, APR 2023, momentum score 90, KO/TKO R1.
  25. Start, APR 2024, momentum score 83, KO/TKO R2.
  26. Start, OCT 2024, momentum score 76, DEC R3.

Peaked at 100 (W vs Vargas), bottomed at 45 (Debut). Current reading: 76.

// KILL_SHOT_MATRIX · 06_

WHEN THE FINISHES COME

Cross-tab of fight outcome by method and round. Reads top-down for method, left-right for round. Cyan intensity scales with frequency.

// METHOD × ROUND_
24/25 fights mapped
METHOD ↓ / ROUND →R1R2R3R4R5FREQ
KO/TKO
4
17%
4
17%
1
4%
-
-
9
total
SUB
3
13%
1
4%
1
4%
-
-
5
total
DEC
-
1
4%
9
38%
-
-
10
total
// PRIMARY KILL ZONE
R1-R2 KO/TKO · 8 of 24 mapped
// LATE-FIGHT GAP
No R5 finishes either way
// DECISION RATE
40%, fights often go the distance
// FIGHT_HISTORY · 08_

BOUT LOG
25 FIGHTS

Detailed bout records for the indexed tenure. Sorted most recent first.

L
VS Asu AlmabayevOct 19, 2024
DecisionR3 · 5:00
UFC Fight Night 245 - Hernandez vs. Pereira
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
L
VS Alex PerezApr 27, 2024
KO/TKOR2 · 2:16
UFC on ESPN 55 - Nicolau vs. Perez
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
KO (Punch)
L
VS Brandon RoyvalApr 15, 2023
KO/TKOR1 · 2:09
UFC on ESPN 44 - Holloway vs. Allen
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
KO (Knee and Elbows)
W
VS Matt SchnellDec 3, 2022
KO/TKOR2 · 1:44
UFC on ESPN 42 - Thompson vs. Holland
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
KO (Punches)
W
VS David DvorakMar 26, 2022
DecisionR3 · 5:00
UFC on ESPN 33 - Blaydes vs. Daukaus
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
W
VS Tim ElliottOct 9, 2021
DecisionR3 · 5:00
UFC Fight Night 194 - Dern vs. Rodriguez
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
W
VS Manel KapeMar 13, 2021
DecisionR3 · 5:00
UFC Fight Night 187 - Edwards vs. Muhammad
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Split)
W
VS Felipe EfrainAug 30, 2019
DecisionR3 · 5:00
Brave CF 25 - Santiago vs. Silva
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
W
VS Alan GabrielMay 24, 2019
SubmissionR1 · 1:18
Future FC 5 - Alves vs. Ramos
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Japanese Necktie)
L
VS Dustin OrtizJul 28, 2018
KO/TKOR1 · 3:49
UFC on Fox 30 - Alvarez vs. Poirier 2
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
KO (Head Kick and Punches)
W
VS Louis SmolkaDec 30, 2017
DecisionR3 · 5:00
UFC 219 - Cyborg vs. Holm
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
W
VS John MoragaJul 8, 2016
DecisionR3 · 5:00
UFC - The Ultimate Fighter 23 Finale
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Split)
// FAQ · 09_

CITATION-READY ANSWERS

Quick answers based on the public fighter profile and fight history shown on this page.

Flyweight. Professional record 19-5-1. Unranked at the time of indexing.

Research Matheus Nicolau

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// FORECAST_AVAILABLE_
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// LAST INDEX SYNC · 2026-10-28