// Roster Index›Middleweight›Dossier · Rafael Natal
UFC FIGHTER PROFILE_
UFC · UNKNOWNSTOCK 0MIDDLEWEIGHT

Rafael
Natal

NICKNAME"Sapo"·BRAZIL
PROFESSIONAL RECORD
21-9-1
CURRENT FORM
3L STREAK
NEXT FIGHT
NO BOUT ANNOUNCED
Rafael Natal
FIGHTER -
BRA🇧🇷
PROFILE PHOTO
PROFILE
PROFILE DATA! COLD
HEIGHT
6'0"
REACH
6'5"
AGE
43
STANCE
ORTHODOX
WEIGHT
Middleweight
PROFESSIONAL RECORD_
31 BOUTS
WIN
21
LOSS
9
DRAW
1
WIN RATE
68%
21/31 bouts
FINISH RATE
57%
of professional wins
LAST 5 FIGHTS3L STREAK · 2-3
WWLLL
Form trend 0 over the last 90 days.
STYLE SUMMARY_
DATA: COLD
FIGHTING STYLE
WELL ROUNDED

Well rounded fighter built around defensive grappling — 43% of wins are by dec.

KEY STRENGTHS

Banks rounds on the scorecard — pace and positioning over splash damage.

KEY RISKS

Pressure boxers willing to wade into the pocket have found chins on offer; cardio drops in late rounds.

// PERFORMANCE_METRICS · 02_

STRIKE / GRAPPLE
VITALS

Observed profile rates compared with stored weight-class medians where coverage exists. Any fallback uses a labeled UFC reference average; no fallback is presented as a division median.

// SLPM▲ ABOVE
3.10
Strikes Landed/Min
Reference value 2.70
// STR. ACC▼ BELOW
47%
Striking Accuracy
Reference value 47%
// SAPM▲ ABOVE
2.48
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Reference value 2.72
// STR. DEF▲ ABOVE
57%
Striking Defense
Reference value 53%
// TD AVG▲ ABOVE
2.55
Takedowns/15 min
Reference value 1.50
// TD ACC▼ BELOW
34%
Takedown Accuracy
Reference value 40%
// TD DEF▲ ABOVE
77%
Takedown Defense
Reference value 58%
// SUB AVG▼ BELOW
0.50
Submissions/15 min
Reference value 0.50
// QUALITY_OF_COMPETITION · 02B_

WHO THEY
ACTUALLY FOUGHT

A record says how often a fighter won, not against whom. These ratings weigh every result by the opponent's strength at the time, then compare this fighter with the 90 rated fighters on the UFC middleweight roster (anyone with a UFC bout in the last two years or one booked).

// RATING
#36
against the 90 rated on the UFC middleweight roster · Elo 1569
// STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
58th
percentile · average opponent rated 1550 at fight time (recent fights count most)
// RESULTS VS EXPECTATION
29th
percentile · fell short of what opponents' ratings predicted (-0.11 per fight)

23 rated fights · opponents rated in 74% of recorded fights · last rated fight JUL 22, 2017

// CAREER_BREAKDOWN · 03_

WIN CONDITION MAP

Where the wins come from, and where the losses came from. Method splits by knockout, submission, and decision.

// WINS (21)
n = 21
KO/TKO · 4
SUB · 8
DEC · 9
4
KO/TKO
19%
8
SUB
38%
9
DEC
43%
// LOSSES (9)
n = 9
KO/TKO · 6
DEC · 3
6
KO/TKO
67%
0
SUB
0%
3
DEC
33%
// PATH_TO_VICTORY_
57% FINISH
KO/TKOEARLY ROUNDS · 4 fights
19%
SUBANY ROUND · 8 fights
38%
DECFULL FIGHT · 9 fights
43%
Top win condition: ko/tko · early rounds.
// DNA_PROFILE · 04_

ATTRIBUTE FINGERPRINT

Evidence-backed 0-100 scores built only from observed profile stats and disclosed bout-history proxies. This is a fixed Blueprint scoring model, not a division percentile; missing axes remain unknown.

// DNA_PROFILE_
3 OBSERVED7 DERIVED0 UNKNOWN
// BENCHMARK
FIXED SCORE SCALE
// LINKED SAMPLE
31 BOUTS
// PROFILE UPDATED
OCT 3, 2026
// RECORDED SOURCE
ufcstats
Fighter attribute fingerprint10 of 10 attributes have evidence-backed scores on the Blueprint fixed scale. Unknown axes are not plotted and no score represents a division percentile.KO POWER27TD DEFENSE82GRAPPLING60CHIN65STRIKING45CARDIO79AGGRESSION36SUB THREAT25STR DEFENSE60RECOVERY50
// BANDS
90+ELITE
70-89STRONG
45-69AVERAGE
30-44BELOW
<30LOW
N/AUNKNOWN
Highest scored axis: TD Defense. Lowest scored axis: Sub Threat.
// EVIDENCE REGISTER
10 SCORED · 0 OPEN
KO Power27
DERIVED PROXY

KO wins divided by total career wins

N=21 wins
TD Defense82
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed takedown defense rate (77%)

Grappling60
DERIVED PROXY

Composite of observed takedown volume, accuracy, and submission rate

Chin65
DERIVED PROXY

KO-loss durability proxy from career record

N=31 bouts
Striking45
DERIVED PROXY

Composite of observed striking volume and accuracy

Cardio79
DERIVED PROXY

Long-fight exposure proxy from bout duration and decision-win share

Aggression36
DERIVED PROXY

Activity proxy from observed strike and takedown volume

Sub Threat25
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed submission rate (0.5 per 15 min)

Str Defense60
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed striking defense rate (57%)

Recovery50
DERIVED PROXY

Share of recorded losses followed by a win in the next recorded bout.

N=9 losses
Fighter attribute fingerprint accessible data summary
AttributeScoreProvenanceEvidenceSample
KO Power27 out of 100DERIVED PROXYKO wins divided by total career wins21 wins
TD Defense82 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved takedown defense rate (77%)Not recorded
Grappling60 out of 100DERIVED PROXYComposite of observed takedown volume, accuracy, and submission rateNot recorded
Chin65 out of 100DERIVED PROXYKO-loss durability proxy from career record31 bouts
Striking45 out of 100DERIVED PROXYComposite of observed striking volume and accuracyNot recorded
Cardio79 out of 100DERIVED PROXYLong-fight exposure proxy from bout duration and decision-win shareNot recorded
Aggression36 out of 100DERIVED PROXYActivity proxy from observed strike and takedown volumeNot recorded
Sub Threat25 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved submission rate (0.5 per 15 min)Not recorded
Str Defense60 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved striking defense rate (57%)Not recorded
Recovery50 out of 100DERIVED PROXYShare of recorded losses followed by a win in the next recorded bout.9 losses
// CAREER_MOMENTUM · 05_

THE ARC SO FAR

Rolling momentum score (0-100) recomputed after every bout. Weighted blend of result, opponent context, and method-of-finish, designed to show the shape, not the destination.

// MOMENTUM_TIMELINE_
SCOREWINLOSS
0255075100MAY 2005WMAY 2005WMAY 2005WOCT 2005WMAY 2006WAPR 2007WAPR 2007WAUG 2007LJUL 2008WNOV 2008WFEB 2009WAPR 2009LJUN 2009WSEP 2009WMAY 2010LSEP 2010DEC 2010WAUG 2011WFEB 2012LJUL 2012WJAN 2013WMAY 2013WSEP 2013LNOV 2013LMAY 2014WSEP 2014WJAN 2015WMAY 2015WJAN 2016LAPR 2016LNOV 2016LJUL 2017// SCORE

  1. Start, MAY 2005, momentum score 45.
  2. Start, MAY 2005, momentum score 55, SUB R1.
  3. Start, MAY 2005, momentum score 65, SUB R2.
  4. Start, OCT 2005, momentum score 74, SUB R2.
  5. Start, MAY 2006, momentum score 85, KO/TKO R1.
  6. Start, APR 2007, momentum score 92, DEC R1.
  7. Start, APR 2007, momentum score 100, SUB R1.
  8. Start, AUG 2007, momentum score 100, DEC R3.
  9. Start, JUL 2008, momentum score 93, KO/TKO R2.
  10. Start, NOV 2008, momentum score 100, SUB R1.
  11. Start, FEB 2009, momentum score 100, KO/TKO R1.
  12. Start, APR 2009, momentum score 100, SUB R2.
  13. Start, JUN 2009, momentum score 90, KO/TKO R1.
  14. Start, SEP 2009, momentum score 100, SUB R1.
  15. Start, MAY 2010, momentum score 100, KO/TKO R1.
  16. Start, SEP 2010, momentum score 93, DEC R3.
  17. Start, DEC 2010, momentum score 93.
  18. Start, AUG 2011, momentum score 100, DEC R3.
  19. Start, FEB 2012, momentum score 100, DEC R3.
  20. Start, JUL 2012, momentum score 93, KO/TKO R2.
  21. Start, JAN 2013, momentum score 100, SUB R3.
  22. Start, MAY 2013, momentum score 100, DEC R3.
  23. Start, SEP 2013, momentum score 100, DEC R3.
  24. Start, NOV 2013, momentum score 90, KO/TKO R1.
  25. Start, MAY 2014, momentum score 83, DEC R3.
  26. Start, SEP 2014, momentum score 90, DEC R3.
  27. Start, JAN 2015, momentum score 97, DEC R3.
  28. Start, MAY 2015, momentum score 100, DEC R3.
  29. Start, JAN 2016, momentum score 100, KO/TKO R3.
  30. Start, APR 2016, momentum score 93, DEC R3.
  31. Start, NOV 2016, momentum score 83, KO/TKO R1.
  32. Start, JUL 2017, momentum score 73, KO/TKO R1.

Peaked at 100 (W vs Bahia), bottomed at 45 (Debut). Current reading: 73.

// KILL_SHOT_MATRIX · 06_

WHEN THE FINISHES COME

Cross-tab of fight outcome by method and round. Reads top-down for method, left-right for round. Cyan intensity scales with frequency.

// METHOD × ROUND_
30/31 fights mapped
METHOD ↓ / ROUND →R1R2R3R4R5FREQ
KO/TKO
7
23%
2
7%
1
3%
-
-
10
total
SUB
4
13%
3
10%
1
3%
-
-
8
total
DEC
1
3%
-
11
37%
-
-
12
total
// PRIMARY KILL ZONE
R1-R2 KO/TKO · 9 of 30 mapped
// LATE-FIGHT GAP
No R5 finishes either way
// DECISION RATE
39%, fights often go the distance
// FIGHT_HISTORY · 08_

BOUT LOG
31 FIGHTS

Detailed bout records for the indexed tenure. Sorted most recent first.

L
VS Eryk AndersJul 22, 2017
KO/TKOR1 · 2:54
UFC on Fox 25 - Weidman vs. Gastelum
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
KO (Punches)
L
VS Tim BoetschNov 12, 2016
KO/TKOR1 · 3:22
UFC 205 - Alvarez vs. McGregor
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
KO (Punches)
L
VS Robert WhittakerApr 23, 2016
DecisionR3 · 5:00
UFC 197 - Jones vs. St. Preux
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
W
VS Kevin CaseyJan 30, 2016
KO/TKOR3 · 3:37
UFC on Fox 18 - Johnson vs. Bader
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Punches)
W
VS Uriah HallMay 23, 2015
DecisionR3 · 5:00
UFC 187 - Johnson vs. Cormier
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Split)
W
VS Tom WatsonJan 31, 2015
DecisionR3 · 5:00
UFC 183 - Silva vs. Diaz
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
W
VS Chris CamozziSep 5, 2014
DecisionR3 · 5:00
UFC Fight Night 50 - Jacare vs. Mousasi 2
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Split)
L
VS Ed HermanMay 10, 2014
DecisionR3 · 5:00
UFC Fight Night 40 - Brown vs. Silva
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
L
VS Tim KennedyNov 6, 2013
KO/TKOR1 · 4:40
UFC Fight Night 31 - Fight for the Troops 3
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
KO (Punches)
W
VS Tor TroengSep 4, 2013
DecisionR3 · 5:00
UFC Fight Night 28 - Teixeira vs. Bader
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
W
VS Joao ZeferinoMay 18, 2013
DecisionR3 · 5:00
UFC on FX 8 - Belfort vs. Rockhold
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
W
VS Sean SpencerJan 26, 2013
SubmissionR3 · 2:13
UFC on Fox 6 - Johnson vs. Dodson
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
// FAQ · 09_

CITATION-READY ANSWERS

Quick answers based on the public fighter profile and fight history shown on this page.

Middleweight. Professional record 21-9-1. Unranked at the time of indexing.

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// LAST INDEX SYNC · 2026-10-28