// Roster Index›Light Heavyweight›Dossier · Rafael Tobias
UFC FIGHTER PROFILE_
UFC · UNKNOWNLIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT

Rafael
Tobias

NICKNAME"Bipolar"·BRAZIL
PROFESSIONAL RECORD
14-3-0
CURRENT FORM
2L STREAK
CURRENT GYM
Chute Boxe Monstro
NEXT FIGHT
NO BOUT ANNOUNCED
Rafael Tobias
FIGHTER -
BRA🇧🇷
PROFILE PHOTO
PROFILE
PROFILE DATA! LIVE
HEIGHT
6'2"
REACH
6'2"
AGE
22
STANCE
ORTHODOX
WEIGHT
Light Heavyweight
PROFESSIONAL RECORD_
17 BOUTS
WIN
14
LOSS
3
DRAW
0
WIN RATE
82%
14/17 bouts
FINISH RATE
79%
of professional wins
LAST 5 FIGHTS2L STREAK · 3-2
WWWLL
STYLE SUMMARY_
DATA: LIVE
FIGHTING STYLE
SUBMISSION HUNTER

Submission hunter fighter built around defensive grappling — 43% of wins are by sub.

KEY STRENGTHS

Drags it to the mat and hunts the finish — submission threat opens up off transitions.

KEY RISKS

Pressure boxers willing to wade into the pocket have found chins on offer; cardio drops in late rounds.

// PERFORMANCE_METRICS · 02_

STRIKE / GRAPPLE
VITALS

Observed profile rates compared with stored weight-class medians where coverage exists. Any fallback uses a labeled UFC reference average; no fallback is presented as a division median.

// SLPM▲ ABOVE
2.77
Strikes Landed/Min
Reference value 2.75
// STR. ACC▼ BELOW
36%
Striking Accuracy
Reference value 49%
// SAPM▼ BELOW
5.81
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Reference value 2.75
// STR. DEF▼ BELOW
35%
Striking Defense
Reference value 53%
// TD AVG▲ ABOVE
2.40
Takedowns/15 min
Reference value 1.50
// TD ACC▼ BELOW
22%
Takedown Accuracy
Reference value 40%
// TD DEF▲ ABOVE
100%
Takedown Defense
Reference value 59%
// SUB AVG▲ ABOVE
1.60
Submissions/15 min
Reference value 0.50
// QUALITY_OF_COMPETITION · 02B_

WHO THEY
ACTUALLY FOUGHT

A record says how often a fighter won, not against whom. These ratings weigh every result by the opponent's strength at the time, then compare this fighter with the 55 other rated fighters on the UFC light heavyweight roster (anyone with a UFC bout in the last two years or one booked).

THIN RATED HISTORY
// RATING
#43
of 56 on the UFC light heavyweight roster · Elo 1497
// STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
15th
percentile · average opponent rated 1502 at fight time (recent fights count most)
// RESULTS VS EXPECTATION
35th
percentile · fell short of what opponents' ratings predicted (-0.07 per fight)

6 rated fights · opponents rated in 35% of recorded fights · last rated fight AUG 15, 2026 · Few rated fights: read these as rough.

// CAREER_BREAKDOWN · 03_

WIN CONDITION MAP

Where the wins come from, and where the losses came from. Method splits by knockout, submission, and decision.

// WINS (14)
n = 14
KO/TKO · 5
SUB · 6
DEC · 3
5
KO/TKO
36%
6
SUB
43%
3
DEC
21%
// LOSSES (3)
n = 3
KO/TKO · 2
DEC · 1
2
KO/TKO
67%
0
SUB
0%
1
DEC
33%
// PATH_TO_VICTORY_
79% FINISH
KO/TKOEARLY ROUNDS · 5 fights
36%
SUBANY ROUND · 6 fights
43%
DECFULL FIGHT · 3 fights
21%
Top win condition: ko/tko · early rounds.
// DNA_PROFILE · 04_

ATTRIBUTE FINGERPRINT

Evidence-backed 0-100 scores built only from observed profile stats and disclosed bout-history proxies. This is a fixed Blueprint scoring model, not a division percentile; missing axes remain unknown.

// DNA_PROFILE_
3 OBSERVED7 DERIVED0 UNKNOWN
// BENCHMARK
FIXED SCORE SCALE
// LINKED SAMPLE
17 BOUTS
// PROFILE UPDATED
OCT 3, 2026
// RECORDED SOURCE
ufcstats
Fighter attribute fingerprint10 of 10 attributes have evidence-backed scores on the Blueprint fixed scale. Unknown axes are not plotted and no score represents a division percentile.KO POWER51TD DEFENSE100GRAPPLING68CHIN74STRIKING26CARDIO58AGGRESSION29SUB THREAT80STR DEFENSE20RECOVERY50
// BANDS
90+ELITE
70-89STRONG
45-69AVERAGE
30-44BELOW
<30LOW
N/AUNKNOWN
Highest scored axis: TD Defense. Lowest scored axis: Str Defense.
// EVIDENCE REGISTER
10 SCORED · 0 OPEN
KO Power51
DERIVED PROXY

KO wins divided by total career wins

N=14 wins
TD Defense100
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed takedown defense rate (100%)

Grappling68
DERIVED PROXY

Composite of observed takedown volume, accuracy, and submission rate

Chin74
DERIVED PROXY

KO-loss durability proxy from career record

N=17 bouts
Striking26
DERIVED PROXY

Composite of observed striking volume and accuracy

Cardio58
DERIVED PROXY

Long-fight exposure proxy from bout duration and decision-win share

Aggression29
DERIVED PROXY

Activity proxy from observed strike and takedown volume

Sub Threat80
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed submission rate (1.6 per 15 min)

Str Defense20
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed striking defense rate (35%)

Recovery50
DERIVED PROXY

Share of recorded losses followed by a win in the next recorded bout.

N=3 losses
Fighter attribute fingerprint accessible data summary
AttributeScoreProvenanceEvidenceSample
KO Power51 out of 100DERIVED PROXYKO wins divided by total career wins14 wins
TD Defense100 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved takedown defense rate (100%)Not recorded
Grappling68 out of 100DERIVED PROXYComposite of observed takedown volume, accuracy, and submission rateNot recorded
Chin74 out of 100DERIVED PROXYKO-loss durability proxy from career record17 bouts
Striking26 out of 100DERIVED PROXYComposite of observed striking volume and accuracyNot recorded
Cardio58 out of 100DERIVED PROXYLong-fight exposure proxy from bout duration and decision-win shareNot recorded
Aggression29 out of 100DERIVED PROXYActivity proxy from observed strike and takedown volumeNot recorded
Sub Threat80 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved submission rate (1.6 per 15 min)Not recorded
Str Defense20 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved striking defense rate (35%)Not recorded
Recovery50 out of 100DERIVED PROXYShare of recorded losses followed by a win in the next recorded bout.3 losses
// CAREER_MOMENTUM · 05_

THE ARC SO FAR

Rolling momentum score (0-100) recomputed after every bout. Weighted blend of result, opponent context, and method-of-finish, designed to show the shape, not the destination.

// MOMENTUM_TIMELINE_
SCOREWINLOSS
0255075100MAR 2022WMAR 2022WAPR 2022WJUL 2022WAUG 2022WSEP 2022WOCT 2022WMAR 2023WAPR 2023LJUL 2023WNOV 2023WAPR 2024WAPR 2024WAUG 2024WAPR 2025WSEP 2025LMAR 2026LAUG 2026// SCORE

  1. Start, MAR 2022, momentum score 45.
  2. Start, MAR 2022, momentum score 56, KO/TKO R1.
  3. Start, APR 2022, momentum score 65, SUB R2.
  4. Start, JUL 2022, momentum score 72, DEC R3.
  5. Start, AUG 2022, momentum score 82, SUB R1.
  6. Start, SEP 2022, momentum score 93, KO/TKO R1.
  7. Start, OCT 2022, momentum score 100, DEC R3.
  8. Start, MAR 2023, momentum score 100, SUB R1.
  9. Start, APR 2023, momentum score 100, KO/TKO R1.
  10. Start, JUL 2023, momentum score 93, KO/TKO R2.
  11. Start, NOV 2023, momentum score 100, SUB R1.
  12. Start, APR 2024, momentum score 100, SUB R1.
  13. Start, APR 2024, momentum score 100, DEC R3.
  14. Start, AUG 2024, momentum score 100, KO/TKO R1.
  15. Start, APR 2025, momentum score 100, KO/TKO R2.
  16. Start, SEP 2025, momentum score 100, SUB R1.
  17. Start, MAR 2026, momentum score 93, DEC R3.
  18. Start, AUG 2026, momentum score 86, KO/TKO R3.

Peaked at 100 (W vs Oliveira), bottomed at 45 (Debut). Current reading: 86.

// KILL_SHOT_MATRIX · 06_

WHEN THE FINISHES COME

Cross-tab of fight outcome by method and round. Reads top-down for method, left-right for round. Cyan intensity scales with frequency.

// METHOD × ROUND_
17/17 fights mapped
METHOD ↓ / ROUND →R1R2R3R4R5FREQ
KO/TKO
4
24%
2
12%
1
6%
-
-
7
total
SUB
5
29%
1
6%
-
-
-
6
total
DEC
-
-
4
24%
-
-
4
total
// PRIMARY KILL ZONE
R1-R2 KO/TKO · 6 of 17 mapped
// LATE-FIGHT GAP
No R5 finishes either way
// DECISION RATE
24%, fights rarely go the distance
GYM & TRAINING PARTNERS_

WHERE THE TRAINING HAPPENS

Camp affiliation matters for stylistic predictions. Who you spend 200 rounds a week with shapes how you fight on Saturday.

// CURRENT_GYM_
Chute Boxe Monstro
VIEW FIGHTER DIRECTORY →
// STYLE_INFLUENCE_
SUB GRAPPLINGCAGE DEFENSE

Style tags inferred from per-fight rate stats: striking-first, wrestling-heavy, sub grappling, cage defense.

// RESOLVED_TRAINING_PARTNERS

No linked training partners are available for this gym yet.

// FIGHT_HISTORY · 08_

BOUT LOG
17 FIGHTS

Detailed bout records for the indexed tenure. Sorted most recent first.

L
VS Lucas FernandoAug 15, 2026
KO/TKOR3 · 1:10
UFC 330 - Makhachev vs. Garry
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Knee to the Body and Elbows)
L
VS Diyar NurgozhayMar 7, 2026
DecisionR3 · 5:00
UFC 326 - Holloway vs. Oliveira 2
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
W
VS Jair de OliveiraSep 23, 2025
SubmissionR1 · 3:46
Dana White's Contender Series - Contender Series 2025: Week 7
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
W
VS Wellington Silva LopesApr 12, 2025
KO/TKOR2 · 0:00
TKO Palmas - TKO Palmasnet 3
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Leg Kicks)
W
VS Marcelo NunezAug 1, 2024
KO/TKOR1 · 1:10
FFC 79 - Cannetti vs. Vacacela
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Punches)
W
VS Willyanedson PaivaApr 21, 2024
DecisionR3 · 5:00
FMS - Fight Music Show: Fight Night 3
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
W
VS Guilherme Lopes CunhaApr 6, 2024
SubmissionR1 · 1:11
Fighter Stars - Fighter Stars 3
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
W
VS Luis Andrade de OliveiraNov 9, 2023
SubmissionR1 · 2:03
Castro Fight - Castro Fight Night
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Guillotine Choke)
L
VS Miguel PortoJul 7, 2023
KO/TKOR2 · 2:02
LFA 162 - Conceicao vs. Lopes
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
KO (Punch)
W
VS Diego FrigottoApr 15, 2023
KO/TKOR1 · 2:08
Spartacus MMA - Arnold Fest South America
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Punches)
W
VS Rick MartinMar 25, 2023
SubmissionR1 · 4:00
Spartacus MMA - Spartacus Fight Event 34
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
W
VS Nathan OliveiraOct 29, 2022
DecisionR3 · 5:00
Spartacus MMA - Spartacus Fight Event 19
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
// FAQ · 09_

CITATION-READY ANSWERS

Quick answers based on the public fighter profile and fight history shown on this page.

Light Heavyweight. Professional record 14-3. Unranked at the time of indexing.

Research Rafael Tobias

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// FORECAST_AVAILABLE_
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// LAST INDEX SYNC · 2026-10-28