How we publish, grade and correct

Where the data comes from

• Career records come from Sherdog

  A fighter’s wins, losses and draws count every promotion they have fought in. We never use UFC-only counts from UFC.com or UFCStats as a career record.

• UFC fight statistics come from UFCStats

  Strikes landed and absorbed per minute, accuracy, takedowns and defense come from UFCStats, with UFC.com as the fallback when it lags.

• Cards are checked before analysis

  The schedule, fighter names, bout order, rounds and publication deadline are checked before any forecast work begins. A duplicate fighter, substitution or incomplete identity stops the process.

• Odds stay out of the forecast

  Betting lines appear only on market tools. Sportsbook prices never reach the debate that produces a pick.

• Missing data stays missing

  A statistic we cannot verify is shown as unavailable, never as zero, and unknown tactical detail stays unknown.

How a forecast is made

Each fight gets one saved research file with a clear cutoff, its sources, any disagreements between them, and the evidence categories that are missing. Four AI advocates, two for each fighter and drawn from different model providers, each build the strongest case for one fighter from that same file. Two independent adjudicators weigh all four cases, the counterevidence and what is still uncertain, then return a winner, a win probability, and the likely method and round.

Some signals never count: staredowns, unsupported motivation stories, highlight reels as primary evidence, unverified medical claims and betting-market movement among them. The complete list and the seven-step process are on How It Works.

Automation, disclosed

Forecasts and breakdowns are generated automatically by The Oracle. No individual human reviews each prediction before publication, and every forecast page carries that note. People build and maintain the engine, its data sources and its checks, review results after each card is settled, and publish corrections. No one changes a winner by hand.

Publishing and grading

• Published before the fight

  The official pick, its full breakdown and its proof record go live together, with a publication time. A fight publishes only after it passes the automated checks.

• Frozen at the lock

  Official picks stop changing when picks close. A real lineup change can trigger a refreshed pick before the deadline; odds movement alone cannot.

• Graded in public

  Completed fights are graded after the event and cancelled fights are marked void. Misses stay on the Track Record.

• Separate records stay separate

  Custom Matchup Reports and Betting Desk activity never count toward the Track Record.

Corrections

• Published picks do not change

  Once an official pick is published, its winner, win probability, method and date stay in the Track Record. A correction adds context without rewriting the original.

• Every correction is logged

  The corrections log shows the original claim, the correction and the date. Nothing is corrected silently.

• Facts and analysis are labeled separately

  A factual error, such as a fighter record or a result, is labeled differently from a change to explanatory writing. Both are logged.

To report an error, email support@blueprintmma.com or use the support form with a link to the page and what is wrong. Every logged correction is on the corrections page.

Independence and money

Blueprint MMA is not affiliated with, endorsed by or sponsored by the UFC, any promotion, any fighter or any sportsbook. Not a gambling operator. The site is paid for by its plans and by display ads shown to free visitors; paying members see no ads. Neither ever changes a pick. MMA analysis only, not financial advice.

Responsible gambling

Blueprint MMA is for readers 18+ (21+ where required for sports wagering). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.