// Roster Index›Lightweight›Dossier · Chris Duncan
UFC FIGHTER PROFILE_
UFC · UNKNOWNLIGHTWEIGHT

Chris
Duncan

NICKNAME"The Problem"·SCOTLAND
PROFESSIONAL RECORD
15-3-0
CURRENT FORM
2L STREAK
CURRENT GYM
American Top Team
NEXT FIGHT
VSDrew Dober
UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit
NOVEMBER 14, 2026
Chris Duncan
FIGHTER -
SCO🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿
PROFILE PHOTO
PROFILE
PROFILE DATA! STALE
HEIGHT
5'10"
REACH
5'12"
AGE
33
STANCE
ORTHODOX
WEIGHT
Lightweight
PROFESSIONAL RECORD_
18 BOUTS
WIN
15
LOSS
3
DRAW
0
WIN RATE
83%
15/18 bouts
FINISH RATE
73%
of professional wins
LAST 5 FIGHTS2L STREAK · 3-2
WWWLL
STYLE SUMMARY_
DATA: STALE
FIGHTING STYLE
BRAWLER

Brawler fighter with no dominant single weapon — 47% of wins are by ko/tko.

KEY STRENGTHS

Closes distance and trades — most wins come from heavy hands inside the first two rounds.

KEY RISKS

Top-position grapplers who can chain transitions force submissions when scrambles open up.

// PERFORMANCE_METRICS · 02_

STRIKE / GRAPPLE
VITALS

Observed profile rates compared with stored weight-class medians where coverage exists. Any fallback uses a labeled UFC reference average; no fallback is presented as a division median.

// SLPM▲ ABOVE
5.02
Strikes Landed/Min
Reference value 2.70
// STR. ACC▲ ABOVE
46%
Striking Accuracy
Reference value 45%
// SAPM▼ BELOW
4.82
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Reference value 2.70
// STR. DEF▼ BELOW
51%
Striking Defense
Reference value 53%
// TD AVG▲ ABOVE
3.27
Takedowns/15 min
Reference value 1.50
// TD ACC▲ ABOVE
42%
Takedown Accuracy
Reference value 40%
// TD DEF▼ BELOW
50%
Takedown Defense
Reference value 59%
// SUB AVG▲ ABOVE
0.70
Submissions/15 min
Reference value 0.50
// QUALITY_OF_COMPETITION · 02B_

WHO THEY
ACTUALLY FOUGHT

A record says how often a fighter won, not against whom. These ratings weigh every result by the opponent's strength at the time, then compare this fighter with the 110 other rated fighters on the UFC lightweight roster (anyone with a UFC bout in the last two years or one booked).

// RATING
#14
of 111 on the UFC lightweight roster · Elo 1619
// STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
60th
percentile · average opponent rated 1558 at fight time (recent fights count most)
// RESULTS VS EXPECTATION
70th
percentile · beat what opponents' ratings predicted (+0.17 per fight)

15 rated fights · opponents rated in 83% of recorded fights · last rated fight APR 4, 2026

// CAREER_BREAKDOWN · 03_

WIN CONDITION MAP

Where the wins come from, and where the losses came from. Method splits by knockout, submission, and decision.

// WINS (15)
n = 15
KO/TKO · 7
SUB · 4
DEC · 4
7
KO/TKO
47%
4
SUB
27%
4
DEC
27%
// LOSSES (3)
n = 3
KO/TKO · 1
SUB · 3
1
KO/TKO
33%
3
SUB
100%
0
DEC
0%
// PATH_TO_VICTORY_
73% FINISH
KO/TKOEARLY ROUNDS · 7 fights
47%
SUBANY ROUND · 4 fights
27%
DECFULL FIGHT · 4 fights
27%
Top win condition: ko/tko · early rounds.
// DNA_PROFILE · 04_

ATTRIBUTE FINGERPRINT

Evidence-backed 0-100 scores built only from observed profile stats and disclosed bout-history proxies. This is a fixed Blueprint scoring model, not a division percentile; missing axes remain unknown.

// DNA_PROFILE_
3 OBSERVED7 DERIVED0 UNKNOWN
// BENCHMARK
FIXED SCORE SCALE
// LINKED SAMPLE
19 BOUTS
// PROFILE UPDATED
OCT 25, 2026
// RECORDED SOURCE
ufcstats
Fighter attribute fingerprint10 of 10 attributes have evidence-backed scores on the Blueprint fixed scale. Unknown axes are not plotted and no score represents a division percentile.KO POWER67TD DEFENSE22GRAPPLING60CHIN81STRIKING63CARDIO63AGGRESSION76SUB THREAT35STR DEFENSE47RECOVERY67
// BANDS
90+ELITE
70-89STRONG
45-69AVERAGE
30-44BELOW
<30LOW
N/AUNKNOWN
Highest scored axis: Chin. Lowest scored axis: TD Defense.
// EVIDENCE REGISTER
10 SCORED · 0 OPEN
KO Power67
DERIVED PROXY

KO wins divided by total career wins

N=15 wins
TD Defense22
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed takedown defense rate (50%)

Grappling60
DERIVED PROXY

Composite of observed takedown volume, accuracy, and submission rate

Chin81
DERIVED PROXY

KO-loss durability proxy from career record

N=18 bouts
Striking63
DERIVED PROXY

Composite of observed striking volume and accuracy

Cardio63
DERIVED PROXY

Long-fight exposure proxy from bout duration and decision-win share

Aggression76
DERIVED PROXY

Activity proxy from observed strike and takedown volume

Sub Threat35
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed submission rate (0.7 per 15 min)

Str Defense47
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed striking defense rate (51%)

Recovery67
DERIVED PROXY

Share of recorded losses followed by a win in the next recorded bout.

N=4 losses
Fighter attribute fingerprint accessible data summary
AttributeScoreProvenanceEvidenceSample
KO Power67 out of 100DERIVED PROXYKO wins divided by total career wins15 wins
TD Defense22 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved takedown defense rate (50%)Not recorded
Grappling60 out of 100DERIVED PROXYComposite of observed takedown volume, accuracy, and submission rateNot recorded
Chin81 out of 100DERIVED PROXYKO-loss durability proxy from career record18 bouts
Striking63 out of 100DERIVED PROXYComposite of observed striking volume and accuracyNot recorded
Cardio63 out of 100DERIVED PROXYLong-fight exposure proxy from bout duration and decision-win shareNot recorded
Aggression76 out of 100DERIVED PROXYActivity proxy from observed strike and takedown volumeNot recorded
Sub Threat35 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved submission rate (0.7 per 15 min)Not recorded
Str Defense47 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved striking defense rate (51%)Not recorded
Recovery67 out of 100DERIVED PROXYShare of recorded losses followed by a win in the next recorded bout.4 losses
// CAREER_MOMENTUM · 05_

THE ARC SO FAR

Rolling momentum score (0-100) recomputed after every bout. Weighted blend of result, opponent context, and method-of-finish, designed to show the shape, not the destination.

// MOMENTUM_TIMELINE_
SCOREWINLOSS
0255075100APR 2018WAPR 2018WJUN 2018WNOV 2018WFEB 2019WAUG 2019WFEB 2020WOCT 2020LOCT 2021WFEB 2022WAUG 2022WMAR 2023WJUL 2023LFEB 2024WSEP 2024WMAR 2025WAUG 2025WDEC 2025LAPR 2026LAPR 2026// SCORE

  1. Start, APR 2018, momentum score 45.
  2. Start, APR 2018, momentum score 55, SUB R2.
  3. Start, JUN 2018, momentum score 64, KO/TKO R3.
  4. Start, NOV 2018, momentum score 74, KO/TKO R1.
  5. Start, FEB 2019, momentum score 85, KO/TKO R1.
  6. Start, AUG 2019, momentum score 95, KO/TKO R1.
  7. Start, FEB 2020, momentum score 100, KO/TKO R2.
  8. Start, OCT 2020, momentum score 100, KO/TKO R2.
  9. Start, OCT 2021, momentum score 93, KO/TKO R2.
  10. Start, FEB 2022, momentum score 100, DEC R3.
  11. Start, AUG 2022, momentum score 100, KO/TKO R1.
  12. Start, MAR 2023, momentum score 100, DEC R3.
  13. Start, JUL 2023, momentum score 100, DEC R3.
  14. Start, FEB 2024, momentum score 93, SUB R1.
  15. Start, SEP 2024, momentum score 100, SUB R1.
  16. Start, MAR 2025, momentum score 100, SUB R2.
  17. Start, AUG 2025, momentum score 100, DEC R3.
  18. Start, DEC 2025, momentum score 100, SUB R1.
  19. Start, APR 2026, momentum score 93, SUB R2.
  20. Start, APR 2026, momentum score 86, SUB R2.

Peaked at 100 (W vs Piskorz), bottomed at 45 (Debut). Current reading: 86.

// KILL_SHOT_MATRIX · 06_

WHEN THE FINISHES COME

Cross-tab of fight outcome by method and round. Reads top-down for method, left-right for round. Cyan intensity scales with frequency.

// METHOD × ROUND_
19/19 fights mapped
METHOD ↓ / ROUND →R1R2R3R4R5FREQ
KO/TKO
4
21%
3
16%
1
5%
-
-
8
total
SUB
3
16%
4
21%
-
-
-
7
total
DEC
-
-
4
21%
-
-
4
total
// PRIMARY KILL ZONE
R1-R2 KO/TKO · 7 of 19 mapped
// LATE-FIGHT GAP
No R5 finishes either way
// DECISION RATE
21%, fights rarely go the distance
GYM & TRAINING PARTNERS_

WHERE THE TRAINING HAPPENS

Camp affiliation matters for stylistic predictions. Who you spend 200 rounds a week with shapes how you fight on Saturday.

// CURRENT_GYM_
American Top Team
VIEW FIGHTER DIRECTORY →
// STYLE_INFLUENCE_
STRIKING-FIRSTWRESTLING-HEAVY

Style tags inferred from per-fight rate stats: striking-first, wrestling-heavy, sub grappling, cage defense.

// RESOLVED_TRAINING_PARTNERS

No linked training partners are available for this gym yet.

// FIGHT_HISTORY · 08_

BOUT LOG
19 FIGHTS

Detailed bout records for the indexed tenure. Sorted most recent first.

L
VS Renato CarneiroApr 4, 2026
SubmissionR2 · 3:14
UFC Fight Night 272 - Moicano vs. Duncan
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Face Crank)
L
VS Renato MoicanoApr 4, 2026
SubmissionR2 · 3:14
UFC Fight Night 272 - Moicano vs. Duncan
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Face Crank)
W
VS Terrance McKinneyDec 6, 2025
SubmissionR1 · 2:30
UFC 323 - Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Anaconda Choke)
W
VS Mateusz RebeckiAug 2, 2025
DecisionR3 · 5:00
UFC on ESPN 71 - Taira vs. Park
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
W
VS Jordan VucenicMar 22, 2025
SubmissionR2 · 3:42
UFC Fight Night 255 - Edwards vs. Brady
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Guillotine Choke)
W
VS Bolaji OkiSep 28, 2024
SubmissionR1 · 3:34
UFC Fight Night 243 - Moicano vs. St. Denis
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke)
L
VS Manuel TorresFeb 24, 2024
SubmissionR1 · 1:46
UFC Fight Night 237 - Moreno vs. Royval 2
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
W
VS Yanal AshmouzJul 22, 2023
DecisionR3 · 5:00
UFC Fight Night 224 - Aspinall vs. Tybura
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
W
VS Omar MoralesMar 18, 2023
DecisionR3 · 5:00
UFC 286 - Edwards vs. Usman 3
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Split)
W
VS Charlie CampbellAug 2, 2022
KO/TKOR1 · 1:43
Dana White's Contender Series - Contender Series 2022: Week 2
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
KO (Punches)
W
VS Jonathan CarlosFeb 5, 2022
DecisionR3 · 5:00
UFL 8 - Ultimate Fight League 8
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
L
VS Viacheslav BorshchevOct 12, 2021
KO/TKOR2 · 0:28
Dana White's Contender Series - Contender Series 2021: Week 7
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
KO (Punch)
// FAQ · 09_

CITATION-READY ANSWERS

Quick answers based on the public fighter profile and fight history shown on this page.

Lightweight. Professional record 15-3. Unranked at the time of indexing.

Research Chris Duncan

Compare this fighter head to head, check the next UFC card, read current matchup analysis, or verify settled Blueprint MMA forecasts.

Compare Chris DuncanUpcoming UFC scheduleFight analysis archivePrediction track record
// FORECAST_AVAILABLE_
Who wins vs Drew Dober?
The pick is free.

Every published fight shows its winner and win probability free. The full debate, method and round open with Sharp or an Event Pass.

SEE THE PICK ALL FIGHTERS
BLUEPRINT/MMA · DOSSIER ENGINE v3.2
// LAST INDEX SYNC · 2026-10-27