// Roster Index›Lightweight›Dossier · Tom Nolan
UFC FIGHTER PROFILE_
UFC · UNKNOWNRANKED #12STOCK 0LIGHTWEIGHT

Tom
Nolan

NICKNAME"Big Train"·AUSTRALIA
PROFESSIONAL RECORD
11-1-0
CURRENT FORM
5W STREAK
CURRENT GYM
Team Compton Training Centre
NEXT FIGHT
VSRenato Moicano
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan
OCTOBER 31, 2026 · MAIN EVENT
Tom Nolan
FIGHTER 012
AUS🇦🇺
PROFILE PHOTO
PROFILE
PROFILE DATA! LIVE
HEIGHT
6'3"
REACH
6'1"
AGE
26
STANCE
SOUTHPAW
WEIGHT
Lightweight
PROFESSIONAL RECORD_
12 BOUTS
WIN
11
LOSS
1
DRAW
0
WIN RATE
92%
11/12 bouts
FINISH RATE
55%
of professional wins
LAST 5 FIGHTS5W STREAK · 5-0
WWWWW
Form trend 0 over the last 90 days.
STYLE SUMMARY_
DATA: LIVE
FIGHTING STYLE
WELL ROUNDED

Well rounded fighter with no dominant single weapon — 45% of wins are by ko/tko.

KEY STRENGTHS

Closes distance and trades — most wins come from heavy hands inside the first two rounds.

KEY RISKS

Pressure boxers willing to wade into the pocket have found chins on offer; cardio drops in late rounds.

// PERFORMANCE_METRICS · 02_

STRIKE / GRAPPLE
VITALS

Observed profile rates compared with stored weight-class medians where coverage exists. Any fallback uses a labeled UFC reference average; no fallback is presented as a division median.

// SLPM▲ ABOVE
4.84
Strikes Landed/Min
Reference value 2.70
// STR. ACC▼ BELOW
45%
Striking Accuracy
Reference value 45%
// SAPM▼ BELOW
3.74
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Reference value 2.70
// STR. DEF▼ BELOW
48%
Striking Defense
Reference value 53%
// TD AVG▼ BELOW
1.08
Takedowns/15 min
Reference value 1.50
// TD ACC▼ BELOW
26%
Takedown Accuracy
Reference value 40%
// TD DEF▼ BELOW
58%
Takedown Defense
Reference value 59%
// SUB AVG▲ ABOVE
1.40
Submissions/15 min
Reference value 0.50
// QUALITY_OF_COMPETITION · 02B_

WHO THEY
ACTUALLY FOUGHT

A record says how often a fighter won, not against whom. These ratings weigh every result by the opponent's strength at the time, then compare this fighter with the 110 other rated fighters on the UFC lightweight roster (anyone with a UFC bout in the last two years or one booked).

// RATING
#28
of 111 on the UFC lightweight roster · Elo 1597
// STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
53rd
percentile · average opponent rated 1551 at fight time (recent fights count most)
// RESULTS VS EXPECTATION
95th
percentile · beat what opponents' ratings predicted (+0.41 per fight)

8 rated fights · opponents rated in 67% of recorded fights · last rated fight JUN 6, 2026

// CAREER_BREAKDOWN · 03_

WIN CONDITION MAP

Where the wins come from, and where the losses came from. Method splits by knockout, submission, and decision.

// WINS (11)
n = 11
KO/TKO · 5
SUB · 1
DEC · 5
5
KO/TKO
45%
1
SUB
9%
5
DEC
45%
// LOSSES (1)
n = 1
KO/TKO · 1
1
KO/TKO
100%
0
SUB
0%
0
DEC
0%
// PATH_TO_VICTORY_
55% FINISH
KO/TKOEARLY ROUNDS · 5 fights
45%
SUBANY ROUND · 1 fights
9%
DECFULL FIGHT · 5 fights
45%
Top win condition: ko/tko · early rounds.
// DNA_PROFILE · 04_

ATTRIBUTE FINGERPRINT

Evidence-backed 0-100 scores built only from observed profile stats and disclosed bout-history proxies. This is a fixed Blueprint scoring model, not a division percentile; missing axes remain unknown.

// DNA_PROFILE_
3 OBSERVED7 DERIVED0 UNKNOWN
// BENCHMARK
FIXED SCORE SCALE
// LINKED SAMPLE
12 BOUTS
// PROFILE UPDATED
OCT 27, 2026
// RECORDED SOURCE
ufcstats
Fighter attribute fingerprint10 of 10 attributes have evidence-backed scores on the Blueprint fixed scale. Unknown axes are not plotted and no score represents a division percentile.KO POWER65TD DEFENSE40GRAPPLING53CHIN78STRIKING60CARDIO67AGGRESSION49SUB THREAT70STR DEFENSE40RECOVERY100
// BANDS
90+ELITE
70-89STRONG
45-69AVERAGE
30-44BELOW
<30LOW
N/AUNKNOWN
Highest scored axis: Recovery. Lowest scored axis: Str Defense.
// EVIDENCE REGISTER
10 SCORED · 0 OPEN
KO Power65
DERIVED PROXY

KO wins divided by total career wins

N=11 wins
TD Defense40
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed takedown defense rate (58%)

Grappling53
DERIVED PROXY

Composite of observed takedown volume, accuracy, and submission rate

Chin78
DERIVED PROXY

KO-loss durability proxy from career record

N=12 bouts
Striking60
DERIVED PROXY

Composite of observed striking volume and accuracy

Cardio67
DERIVED PROXY

Long-fight exposure proxy from bout duration and decision-win share

Aggression49
DERIVED PROXY

Activity proxy from observed strike and takedown volume

Sub Threat70
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed submission rate (1.4 per 15 min)

Str Defense40
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed striking defense rate (48%)

Recovery100
DERIVED PROXY

Share of recorded losses followed by a win in the next recorded bout.

N=1 losses
Fighter attribute fingerprint accessible data summary
AttributeScoreProvenanceEvidenceSample
KO Power65 out of 100DERIVED PROXYKO wins divided by total career wins11 wins
TD Defense40 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved takedown defense rate (58%)Not recorded
Grappling53 out of 100DERIVED PROXYComposite of observed takedown volume, accuracy, and submission rateNot recorded
Chin78 out of 100DERIVED PROXYKO-loss durability proxy from career record12 bouts
Striking60 out of 100DERIVED PROXYComposite of observed striking volume and accuracyNot recorded
Cardio67 out of 100DERIVED PROXYLong-fight exposure proxy from bout duration and decision-win shareNot recorded
Aggression49 out of 100DERIVED PROXYActivity proxy from observed strike and takedown volumeNot recorded
Sub Threat70 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved submission rate (1.4 per 15 min)Not recorded
Str Defense40 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved striking defense rate (48%)Not recorded
Recovery100 out of 100DERIVED PROXYShare of recorded losses followed by a win in the next recorded bout.1 losses
// CAREER_MOMENTUM · 05_

THE ARC SO FAR

Rolling momentum score (0-100) recomputed after every bout. Weighted blend of result, opponent context, and method-of-finish, designed to show the shape, not the destination.

// MOMENTUM_TIMELINE_
SCOREWINLOSS
0255075100DEC 2020WDEC 2020WNOV 2021WJUL 2022WDEC 2022WMAR 2023WAUG 2023LJAN 2024WMAY 2024WAUG 2024WFEB 2025WSEP 2025WJUN 2026// SCORE

  1. Start, DEC 2020, momentum score 45.
  2. Start, DEC 2020, momentum score 52, DEC R3.
  3. Start, NOV 2021, momentum score 59, DEC R3.
  4. Start, JUL 2022, momentum score 70, KO/TKO R1.
  5. Start, DEC 2022, momentum score 79, KO/TKO R2.
  6. Start, MAR 2023, momentum score 89, KO/TKO R1.
  7. Start, AUG 2023, momentum score 100, KO/TKO R1.
  8. Start, JAN 2024, momentum score 90, KO/TKO R1.
  9. Start, MAY 2024, momentum score 100, KO/TKO R1.
  10. Start, AUG 2024, momentum score 100, DEC R3.
  11. Start, FEB 2025, momentum score 100, DEC R3.
  12. Start, SEP 2025, momentum score 100, SUB R1.
  13. Start, JUN 2026, momentum score 100, DEC R3.

Peaked at 100 (W vs Grad), bottomed at 45 (Debut). Current reading: 100.

// KILL_SHOT_MATRIX · 06_

WHEN THE FINISHES COME

Cross-tab of fight outcome by method and round. Reads top-down for method, left-right for round. Cyan intensity scales with frequency.

// METHOD × ROUND_
12/12 fights mapped
METHOD ↓ / ROUND →R1R2R3R4R5FREQ
KO/TKO
5
42%
1
8%
-
-
-
6
total
SUB
1
8%
-
-
-
-
1
total
DEC
-
-
5
42%
-
-
5
total
// PRIMARY KILL ZONE
R1-R2 KO/TKO · 6 of 12 mapped
// LATE-FIGHT GAP
No R5 finishes either way
// DECISION RATE
42%, fights often go the distance
GYM & TRAINING PARTNERS_

WHERE THE TRAINING HAPPENS

Camp affiliation matters for stylistic predictions. Who you spend 200 rounds a week with shapes how you fight on Saturday.

// CURRENT_GYM_
Team Compton Training Centre
VIEW FIGHTER DIRECTORY →
// STYLE_INFLUENCE_
STRIKING-FIRST

Style tags inferred from per-fight rate stats: striking-first, wrestling-heavy, sub grappling, cage defense.

// RESOLVED_TRAINING_PARTNERS

No linked training partners are available for this gym yet.

// FIGHT_HISTORY · 08_

BOUT LOG
12 FIGHTS

Detailed bout records for the indexed tenure. Sorted most recent first.

W
VS Fares ZiamJun 6, 2026
DecisionR3 · 5:00
UFC Fight Night 278 - Muhammad vs. Bonfim
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
W
VS Charlie CampbellSep 27, 2025
SubmissionR1 · 4:08
UFC Fight Night 260 - Ulberg vs. Reyes
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
W
VS Viacheslav BorshchevFeb 8, 2025
DecisionR3 · 5:00
UFC 312 - Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
W
VS Alex ReyesAug 17, 2024
DecisionR3 · 5:00
UFC 305 - Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
W
VS Victor MartinezMay 18, 2024
KO/TKOR1 · 3:50
UFC Fight Night 241 - Barboza vs. Murphy
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Knee to the Body and Punches)
L
VS Nikolas MottaJan 13, 2024
KO/TKOR1 · 1:03
UFC Fight Night 234 - Ankalaev vs. Walker 2
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Punches)
W
VS Bogdan GradAug 8, 2023
KO/TKOR1 · 1:23
Dana White's Contender Series - Contender Series 2023: Week 1
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
KO (Punches)
W
VS Aidan AguileraMar 18, 2023
KO/TKOR1 · 2:22
Eternal MMA 74 - Gold Coast
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Knee and Punches)
W
VS Adam CookDec 2, 2022
KO/TKOR2 · 3:58
Eternal MMA 72 - Gold Coast
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Punches and Knee)
W
VS Niam StephenJul 16, 2022
KO/TKOR1 · 3:54
Eternal MMA 67 - Gold Coast
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Punches)
W
VS Trevor SinclairNov 20, 2021
DecisionR3 · 5:00
Eternal MMA 63 - Gold Coast
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
W
VS Sam FlintDec 12, 2020
DecisionR3 · 5:00
XFC 46 - State Of Origin
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
// FAQ · 09_

CITATION-READY ANSWERS

Quick answers based on the public fighter profile and fight history shown on this page.

Lightweight. Professional record 11-1. Ranked #12 by the UFC.

Research Tom Nolan

Compare this fighter head to head, check the next UFC card, read current matchup analysis, or verify settled Blueprint MMA forecasts.

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Recent Analysis

// FORECAST_AVAILABLE_
Who wins vs Renato Moicano?
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// LAST INDEX SYNC · 2026-10-27