EVERY OFFICIAL PICK
PUBLISHED FIRST
GRADED HERE.
Blueprint MMA timestamps every official winner and win chance before the fight begins, then grades it against the settled outcome. This scoreboard leads with winner accuracy and the complete public result list. Start with the settled sample, wins, misses, accuracy, and how close the published percentages were. Deeper scoring details remain available below.
172 official picks across recorded engine versions
Public, row-level proof
2026 official UFC picks: wins, misses, and percentage quality
This benchmark includes 172 official UFC winner picks that were published before the fight and have settled in 2026: 106 wins and 66 misses. Winner accuracy is 61.6%. The win-chance score is 0.2406; lower means the published percentages were closer to the outcomes.
The sample excludes pending picks, draws, no contests, voids, and unpublished forecasts. Winner accuracy and percentage quality do not establish betting profitability, and Blueprint MMA makes no profit guarantee.
The current Blueprint-versus-market comparison contains 107 settled picks and was updated Aug 31, 2026, 12:03 PM UTC.
Every official pick is added to the public record before its fight begins. The original pick cannot be quietly edited afterward. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Picks are for information and entertainment only.
Download Public Data →Two Luna advocates and a Sol adjudicator assess the saved evidence for each scheduled fight. Sportsbook prices never change the official pick or win chance.
The winner and win chance are published together, so you can judge both the call and whether the confidence made sense.
After the event, every official pick becomes a win, miss, or clearly labeled unscored result. Losses stay visible.
Where Blueprint Has Been Stronger—or Weaker
Use the sample size beside each row. Small groups can swing sharply and should not be treated as a promise about the next fight.
| Segment | N | Accuracy | Win-Chance Score | Simulated Return* | Percentage Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FlyweightLow N | 17 | 64.7% | 0.2089 | +23.5% | Percentages Matched |
| BantamweightLow N | 18 | 66.7% | 0.2407 | +27.3% | Too Cautious |
| Featherweight | 22 | 59.1% | 0.2570 | +12.8% | Percentages Matched |
| Lightweight | 23 | 47.8% | 0.2533 | -8.7% | Too Confident |
| Welterweight | 20 | 60.0% | 0.2233 | +14.5% | Percentages Matched |
| Middleweight | 21 | 57.1% | 0.2473 | +9.1% | Percentages Matched |
| Light HeavyweightLow N | 15 | 73.3% | 0.2304 | +40.0% | Too Cautious |
| HeavyweightLow N | 15 | 66.7% | 0.2596 | +27.3% | Too Cautious |
| Women's StrawweightLow N | 10 | 60.0% | 0.2626 | +14.5% | Percentages Matched |
| Women's FlyweightLow N | 4 | 100.0% | 0.1886 | +90.9% | Too Cautious |
| Women's BantamweightLow N | 5 | 60.0% | 0.2274 | +14.5% | Percentages Matched |
Rows marked Low N have fewer than 20 settled picks. Small samples carry high variance and aren't yet structural signal.
*Simulated return applies the same $100 stake and −110 price to every settled pick. It does not use the actual line, prove profitability, or predict future returns.
// Note - Strongest: Welterweight, 60.0% over 20 calls. Weakest: Lightweight, 47.8% over 23 calls.
Complete Results
Wins and misses count toward accuracy. Voids and late or incomplete records stay visible but unscored. Upcoming full breakdowns remain locked unless your access includes them.
| Date | Event | Matchup · Pick | Method | Round | Win Chance | Confidence | Outcome | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEP 08 | UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse Fight Night | ▸Salahdine Parnasse vs. Dan Hooker UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse | KO/TKO✓ | R1 ✓ | 53.8% | Slight | WIN | |
| SEP 08 | UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse Fight Night | ▸Michael Page vs. Nursulton Ruziboev UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse | Decision✓ | Result R3 | 50.9% | Slight | WIN | |
| SEP 08 | UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse Fight Night | ▸Daniil Donchenko vs. Punahele Soriano UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse | KO/TKO→ Decision | R3 → R3 | 52.8% | Slight | WIN | |
| SEP 08 | UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse Fight Night | ▸Kurtis Campbell vs. Trevor Peek UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse | Decision→ Submission | Result R3 | 53.9% | Slight | WIN | |
| SEP 08 | UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse Fight Night | ▸Mario Pinto vs. Ryan Spann UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse | KO/TKO✓ | R1 → R2 | 56.5% | Slight | WIN | |
| SEP 05 | UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse Fight Night | ▸Losene Keita vs. Muhammad Naimov UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse | KO/TKO✓ | R1 ✓ | 51.9% | Slight | WIN | |
| SEP 05 | UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse Fight Night | ▸Matthieu Duclos vs. Luis Dias De Assis UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse | KO/TKO✓ | R1 ✓ | 52.9% | Slight | WIN | |
| AUG 29 | UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song Fight Night | ▸Julia Polastri vs. Xiong Jingnan UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song | KO/TKO✓ | R3 → R1 | 55.8% | Slight | WIN | |
| AUG 29 | UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song Fight Night | ▸Sean Woodson vs. Jack Jenkins UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song | Decision✓ | Result R3 | 55.6% | Slight | WIN | |
| AUG 29 | UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song Fight Night | ▸Rei Tsuruya vs. Kevin Borjas UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song | Submission✓ | R1 ✓ | 78.2% | Elite | WIN | |
| AUG 29 | UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song Fight Night | ▸Andre Lima vs. Namsrai Batbayar UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song | KO/TKO→ Submission | R1 → R3 | 63.2% | Moderate | WIN | |
| AUG 29 | UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song Fight Night | ▸Bilal Hasan vs. Nilson Rojas UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song | KO/TKO✓ | R1 → R2 | 76.9% | High | WIN | |
| AUG 29 | UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song Fight Night | ▸Liu Ce vs. Levi Rodrigues Jr UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song | KO/TKO✓ | R1 ✓ | 50.3% | Slight | WIN | |
| AUG 29 | UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song Fight Night | ▸Sumudaerji vs. Alex Perez UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song | KO/TKO→ Decision | R1 → R3 | 63.4% | Moderate | WIN | |
| AUG 29 | UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song Fight Night | ▸Kai Asakura vs. Aoriqileng UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song | KO/TKO✓ | R1 → R2 | 71.8% | High | WIN |